Post-earnings pullback in a name that printed a record quarter on 8/26 (revenue $1.47B +26%, ARR $5.84B +25%, record net new ARR $332.8M, FY net-new-ARR guide raised) while software as a group sold off; price on the 20d SMA (210.56) above a rising 50d (200.81), RSI 53, 8.9% off the 20d high, RS60 +25.
HOLD the 50 CRWD filled 9/8 @ 207.69 (Roth). HOLD OFF on the remaining 70-sh 208.00 limit — do not place it today; if it is resting unfilled, cancel it before the open (pre-market is below 208, so it would fill at market into the gap); if it filled on 9/9 (the 9/9 low was 207.00, through the limit), confirm the fill and raise the 196.00 stop to cover 120 sh. CRWD pre-market 203.50 at 08:46 ET (tape) / 203.65 at 08:52 (portfolio SIP mark) / 203.88 at 08:52 (stockanalysis) vs the 9/9 close 207.80 = −2.07% / −2.00% / −1.89% — on the edge of the 2% band, above the 200.00 invalidation. 9/9 close 207.80 was above 200 — no exit. Position at 203.65: −1.95% from entry; invalidation 200.00 (close-only) / hard stop 196.00 in place for 50 sh / breakeven trigger 218.07 / T1 229.00 / T2 233.90. Macro: PPI +0.4% as expected, WTI > $100, yields at multi-year highs, ECB hike; SPY 758.07 (−1.03%) at 08:46, VIX 17.2, net GEX −8.7B strong short gamma (9/9). Nothing on CRWD; ORCL after the close is the software read-through. Fri 9/11 is the good-through date — an unfilled limit is cancelled at the close.
Per the bars: CRWD week 213.10 -> 206.74 (-2.98%) vs SPY -0.81%; the 208 limit would have filled 9/9 (low 207.00); no close under the 200 invalidation (closes 210.02 / 207.80 / 208.86 / 206.74), the 196 hard stop never touched (week low 204.27), T1 229 / T2 233.90 / breakeven 218.07 never printed (week high 214.68). Actual: BUY 50 @ 207.69 Roth 9/8 (confirmed on the card), SOLD 50 Fri 9/11 on the chart read — exit price UNKNOWN, confirm (approx 205-206 = roughly -$85 to -$135). Book endpoint (as_of 9/8) does not show CRWD.
CRWD_D (bar date 9/11, rendered 13:16 ET intraday; on-demand render returned the cached file): swing highs 233.88 / 227.50 / 217.50, swing lows 181.24 / 181.00 / 174.14; since the 8/27 gap (4.9% still open, 191.32-200.60) the picture is lower highs 233.88 -> 218.31 -> 214.68 -> 213.19 on red volume larger than green, price under the 20d (207.44) above the 50d (202.55). CRWD_60: falling session VWAP, 213-214 ceiling rejected 9/4, 9/10, 9/11, 204 base tested 9/2-3, 9/10 (204.27), 9/11 (204.44) — a post-earnings distribution, not bucket A, at entry and now; the structure-kill (lower high + third base test) fired 9/11.
strong short gamma, net GEX −1.2B (9/7 read)
Breadth and contango allow normal size; the CPI/FOMC window inside the hold cut it to 10% NAV. T1 set inside the implied move. Ruling 9/8: pick judged in isolation from the book.
| Week | Pick | Setup | Entry | Result | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | XLV | Sector breakout holding above the prior high, relative strength at a new high | 178.95 | OPEN — interim. Theme right: XLV +1.45% vs SPY -0.43%. Per the bars, XLV tranche 1 (buy-stop 178.95) filled Tue Oct 20 and closed Friday at 179.28 (+0.2%); the 174.50 limit never filled. XLV is 5.8 points above the 173.50 invalidation close, 7.9 above the 171.40 hard stop, 4.2 under T1 183.50. Grade waits for the exit. | |
| 2026-10-12 | ABBV | B — breakout/continuation (first retest); screen flag: extended (RSI 71.2) | 271.50 | Theme right, entry missed: XLV +3.45% and ABBV +3.24% vs SPY -1.97% (prior close to Friday close), but the 271.50 limit never filled (week low 273.70 on Tue). Per the bars the flagged 50-sh alternate (stop 281.68 / limit 283.09) likely filled Tue near 283.09 after opening 283.29; worth about +0.8% at Friday's 285.42. Jason's fills UNKNOWN. | B |
| 2026-10-05 | No trade | B — breakout retest (relabeled from B breakout/continuation) | NO-TRADE on the primary per the bars: the NVDA 228.00 limit never traded (week low 229.11 Fri; Thu low 229.85); no close under 226.90; T1/T2 not printed (week high 243.37 Tue). NVDA 233.95 -> 229.28 = -2.00% vs SPY +1.16%, SMH -4.32%. The breakout confirmed Mon (close 238.90 on 127.2M) then failed Thu (close 230.48 on 118.7M, back under the 232.3-233.2 ceiling). ALT ENTRY per the bars: Monday's close met the breakout condition (>237.88 on >110M); a Tue stop-limit (stop ~239.38 / limit ~240.57) would have filled (Tue range 238.93-243.37) and Thursday's 229.85 low traded through its 232.20 hard stop = about -$711 on 85 sh, the planned loss. Fills UNKNOWN - book file (as_of 9/19) shows no NVDA. | C | |
| 2026-09-28 | SMH | B — breakout/continuation (ETF row carries no bucket; relabeled from the chart: last week's 573–600 coil resolved up 9/21 and held four sessions) | 597.50 | OPEN — interim, per the bars: the 597.50 limit traded Mon 9/28 (low 591.92, the GO day); no close under 592, hard 586.50 untouched; T1 626 printed Fri 10/2 (gap to 628.55–636.25, close 630.60 = +5.54% from entry, +5% breakeven trigger 627.38 hit); T2 648 not printed. SMH +3.96% on the week vs SPY −0.22%. Fills UNKNOWN — book (as_of 9/19) shows no SMH. | |
| 2026-09-21 | No trade | breakout/continuation (extended) — retest entry; no screen bucket (14% above the 20d) | NO-TRADE per the bars: the 531 limit never traded (week low 582.27 Mon 9/21 open; Monday gapped +4.0% and closed 615.52 over T1 584.50, Tuesday closed 623.77 over T2 619.70; no close under 517; both targets printed without a position). AMD 559.82 -> 630.59 = +12.64% vs SPY 761.69 -> 771.35 = +1.27%; SMH +5.86%, SOXX +7.43%. Fills UNKNOWN - book shows no card position (AMD 20 @ 583.33 Roth is the pre-existing ai-semi lot, not the card). Held Week-2 AAPL 60 @ 333.50 Roth: OPEN, 341.07 close (+2.27%), week high 345.34 (T1 344.57 printed 9/22, not held), low 334.30 above the 335 ceiling on a close basis and the 328 invalidation; hard 319 GTC. Thesis right (semis IN, AMD the resolved chart), execution flawed: a limit 5.2% under the close in a nine-up-day name with a rising ratio, no buy-stop variant (rejected at 1.0:1 to T1 though 1.7:1 to T2) = a card designed not to fill. | B | |
| 2026-09-14 | AAPL | B (breakout/continuation; screen 9/16: within 1.1% of the 20d high, RS20 +9.0, RS60 +10.6, RSI 62, not extended) | 333.50 | OPEN — interim. Per the bars (stockanalysis; Yahoo 429 all run) the 333.50 limit would have filled Fri 9/18 (O 337.91 H 338.49 L 332.53 C 336.13, 85.9M sh — quad witching, the month's biggest volume); GO was issued 08:52 ET so the order was placeable. Close 336.13 = +0.79% vs entry, above the 335 ceiling for a second day; invalidation 328 / hard stop 319 never threatened (week low 328.35 on 9/15, before the card); T1 344.57 / T2 358 not printed (week high 338.49). AAPL week +1.16% (332.27 → 336.13) vs SPY −0.34% (764.29 → 761.69); QQQ +0.90%, XLK +1.03%. Fills UNKNOWN — book file still as_of 9/8, no AAPL. Falsifier watch: Friday was red on the month's biggest volume but closed in the top 60% of its range above 335 — not a reversal, but the first warning bar. Next: Sun 9/20 chart review · Wed 9/23 good-through · Fri 9/25 ledger. |
| Date | Ticker | Gap | Entry | Exit | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | MRNA short | -4.80% | 197.67 | 205.23 stop | -1.17R |
| 2026-10-22 | UNP short | -2.90% | 295.37 | 297.63 stop | -1.37R |
| 2026-10-22 | NEM short | -3.40% | 113.43 | 112.57 tp2 | +1.13R |
| 2026-10-22 | SOFI short | -2.48% | 14.98 | 14.78 time 1555 | +1.72R |
| 2026-10-22 | SMH short | -3.81% | 536.76 | 534.06 tp2 | +0.62R |
| 2026-10-22 | SMCI short | -4.39% | 34.09 | 33.76 tp2 | +0.34R |
| 2026-10-22 | FCX short | -4.40% | 66.05 | 65.02 tp2 | +1.19R |
| 2026-10-22 | AA short | -4.07% | 38.94 | 38.71 tp2 | +0.54R |
| 2026-10-22 | MS short | -2.04% | 186.06 | 184.02 time 1555 | +3.70R |
| 2026-10-22 | HOOD short | -4.84% | 100.72 | 97.14 tp2 | +3.88R |