Apple is the one wire-named leader whose chart is intact after the FOMC hike: higher lows 300 → 309.90 → 328.35 → 330.70, AAPL/SPY ratio rising for four weeks, flat through the 9/16 FOMC sell-off while SPY broke its 50d, and on 9/17 it pushed through the 335 ceiling (20d high 336.21) that had rejected it four times. The only level above is the 344.57 July spike top. Buy the retest of the broken ceiling, not the breakout bar.
Three counts. (1) Index: SPY still shows lower highs 779.37 → 775.30 and only reclaimed its 50d (759.53) today after a hammer to 749.60; breadth under 50% (FX Evolution 9/17: <31% of S&P names above the 50d by their measure); strong short gamma; institutions have been net sellers per the same wire. A leader coiling under resistance in that tape resolves down as often as up. (2) AAPL: 344.57 is a lower-high spike top, so the daily is a contracting triangle, not a clean uptrend — a failure at 336–338 makes 9/17 the fifth rejection. Quad witching + iPhone availability Fri 9/18 is a classic sell-the-news setup. (3) Move-already flag: +8.5% off the 9/9 low (310) in six sessions; the coil-to-T1 leg is only +3.3%. Mitigation: pullback entry (no chase), T2 not T1 is the reward, low-end size, invalidation 1.6% under entry.
AAPL_D (bars through 9/17 midday): (1) Structure — higher lows 300.00 / 300.57 / 309.90 / 328.35 / 330.70; highs 334.99 (Jul) / 344.57 (Jul 24 spike) then the 335 ceiling tapped 9/11, 9/14, 9/15, 9/16, cleared 9/17 (print 336.10 vs 20d high 336.21). (2) Levels — demand 328–331 (the coil floor), supply 344.57, SMA20 321.35 / SMA50 319.73 both rising, SMA200 286. (3) Volume — the 9/10–9/11 thrust from 314 to 335 came on the two biggest hourly bars of the month (14M each); the four-day hold at 330–335 was on shrinking volume (effort low, result held = absorption); 9/17 breakout on light midday volume so far — the close must confirm. (4) Multi-candle — four small-bodied bars under 335 then a push through = coil resolving up. (5) Ratio — AAPL/SPY rising since 9/10, made a higher high 9/17. (6) Hourly — VWAP held every session 9/11–9/17; PDL 328.35 (9/15), 330.70 (9/16) both untouched. (7) R:R — 2.0:1 to T1 / 4.5:1 to T2 vs invalidation. (8) Bear read below.
GO — place AAPL 60 sh limit 333.50 in Roth, good through Wed 9/23 close. AAPL pre-market 337.02 (SIP 08:46 ET; Yahoo 337.20 at 08:49) vs the 9/17 close 337.00 = +0.01% gap (not on the ≥2% list); above invalidation 328 / hard stop 319; T1 344.57 / T2 358. Yesterday: AAPL 330.19 → 337.00 (+1.38% from 332.41) vs SPY 762.60 (+1.13%, back above the 50d 759.53, under the 20d 764.35; lower highs 779.37 → 775.30 still standing); SPY pre-market 760.50 (−0.28%). No thesis-breaking headline (CNBC 08:46: futures little changed, oil down a third day, BoJ hike, AI options bullish); GEX −2.6B strong short gamma, P/C 1.42, VIX 15.58. Event gate PASS for a resting limit — quad witching + iPhone availability today are inside the hold, not a gate. Note: card entry_type reads 'reclaim' but entry_condition/entry_note and the project log are an explicit resting limit 333.50 — verdict applied to the limit as written; no buy-stop variant (card rejected it, R:R < 1:1). Fills only on a pullback; nothing above 337.
Chart ruling
bull read survives — highs since the 344.57 peak step UP (320.28 → ~330 → 335.48 → 338.34), not a coil; 9/17 closed 337.00 above the 335.48 ceiling that rejected 9/11, 9/14, 9/16; AAPL/SPY ratio rising over the last 20 sessions; AAPL +1.38% vs SPY +1.13% on 9/17
OPEN — interim. Per the bars (stockanalysis; Yahoo 429 all run) the 333.50 limit would have filled Fri 9/18 (O 337.91 H 338.49 L 332.53 C 336.13, 85.9M sh — quad witching, the month's biggest volume); GO was issued 08:52 ET so the order was placeable. Close 336.13 = +0.79% vs entry, above the 335 ceiling for a second day; invalidation 328 / hard stop 319 never threatened (week low 328.35 on 9/15, before the card); T1 344.57 / T2 358 not printed (week high 338.49). AAPL week +1.16% (332.27 → 336.13) vs SPY −0.34% (764.29 → 761.69); QQQ +0.90%, XLK +1.03%. Fills UNKNOWN — book file still as_of 9/8, no AAPL. Falsifier watch: Friday was red on the month's biggest volume but closed in the top 60% of its range above 335 — not a reversal, but the first warning bar. Next: Sun 9/20 chart review · Wed 9/23 good-through · Fri 9/25 ledger.
AAPL_D (cached render, bar 9/17 — the on-demand route returned the 08:47 ET pre-market file all day, so Friday's bar is from stockanalysis, not the image): swing highs 334.99 / 344.57 / 320.28, swing lows 300.00 / 300.57 / 309.90; rising 20d 321.40 / 50d 319.74; ratio vs SPY rising since 9/10; 9/17 closed 337.00 above the 335 ceiling that rejected 9/11, 9/14, 9/15, 9/16. AAPL_60 (bar 9/17): 310 → 335 thrust 9/10–9/11 on the two biggest hourly bars (14M), four sessions of 330–335 on shrinking volume, VWAP held every session, PDH 335.48 / PDL 330.70. The week made a higher high (338.49 Fri vs 335.50 Mon and 336.22 on 9/11), no lower high, and held the 328–331 base; up-day volume light (36M on the 9/17 breakout), Friday red on 86M (witching). Bucket B matched the picture at entry and still does — price is above the broken ceiling — with Friday's high-volume red bar as the one caveat.
SPY 762.41 · VIX 15.68 · STRONG_SHORT_GAMMA — net GEX −4.1B (9/17, from −11.2B 9/16), P/C 1.42, spot +17% above zero gamma. SPY 9/17 12:23 ET 762.41 (+1.1%) back above the 50d 759.53, under the 20d 764.34; 9/16 hammer low 749.60; lower highs 779.37 → 775.30 still standing. QQQ +1.7%, IWM +1.1%, VIX −11%. CNBC 9/17: Dow futures +600 on falling oil and yields.
Size at the low end (60 sh, 8.1% NAV): breadth 40.4%, net new highs −50, strong short gamma, quad witching inside the hold. Hard-stop R:R to T1 flagged (0.8:1); invalidation R:R 2.0:1 / 4.5:1 is the working number.
| Week | Pick | Setup | Entry | Result | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | XLV | Sector breakout holding above the prior high, relative strength at a new high | 178.95 | OPEN — interim. Theme right: XLV +1.45% vs SPY -0.43%. Per the bars, XLV tranche 1 (buy-stop 178.95) filled Tue Oct 20 and closed Friday at 179.28 (+0.2%); the 174.50 limit never filled. XLV is 5.8 points above the 173.50 invalidation close, 7.9 above the 171.40 hard stop, 4.2 under T1 183.50. Grade waits for the exit. | |
| 2026-10-12 | ABBV | B — breakout/continuation (first retest); screen flag: extended (RSI 71.2) | 271.50 | Theme right, entry missed: XLV +3.45% and ABBV +3.24% vs SPY -1.97% (prior close to Friday close), but the 271.50 limit never filled (week low 273.70 on Tue). Per the bars the flagged 50-sh alternate (stop 281.68 / limit 283.09) likely filled Tue near 283.09 after opening 283.29; worth about +0.8% at Friday's 285.42. Jason's fills UNKNOWN. | B |
| 2026-10-05 | No trade | B — breakout retest (relabeled from B breakout/continuation) | NO-TRADE on the primary per the bars: the NVDA 228.00 limit never traded (week low 229.11 Fri; Thu low 229.85); no close under 226.90; T1/T2 not printed (week high 243.37 Tue). NVDA 233.95 -> 229.28 = -2.00% vs SPY +1.16%, SMH -4.32%. The breakout confirmed Mon (close 238.90 on 127.2M) then failed Thu (close 230.48 on 118.7M, back under the 232.3-233.2 ceiling). ALT ENTRY per the bars: Monday's close met the breakout condition (>237.88 on >110M); a Tue stop-limit (stop ~239.38 / limit ~240.57) would have filled (Tue range 238.93-243.37) and Thursday's 229.85 low traded through its 232.20 hard stop = about -$711 on 85 sh, the planned loss. Fills UNKNOWN - book file (as_of 9/19) shows no NVDA. | C | |
| 2026-09-28 | SMH | B — breakout/continuation (ETF row carries no bucket; relabeled from the chart: last week's 573–600 coil resolved up 9/21 and held four sessions) | 597.50 | OPEN — interim, per the bars: the 597.50 limit traded Mon 9/28 (low 591.92, the GO day); no close under 592, hard 586.50 untouched; T1 626 printed Fri 10/2 (gap to 628.55–636.25, close 630.60 = +5.54% from entry, +5% breakeven trigger 627.38 hit); T2 648 not printed. SMH +3.96% on the week vs SPY −0.22%. Fills UNKNOWN — book (as_of 9/19) shows no SMH. | |
| 2026-09-21 | No trade | breakout/continuation (extended) — retest entry; no screen bucket (14% above the 20d) | NO-TRADE per the bars: the 531 limit never traded (week low 582.27 Mon 9/21 open; Monday gapped +4.0% and closed 615.52 over T1 584.50, Tuesday closed 623.77 over T2 619.70; no close under 517; both targets printed without a position). AMD 559.82 -> 630.59 = +12.64% vs SPY 761.69 -> 771.35 = +1.27%; SMH +5.86%, SOXX +7.43%. Fills UNKNOWN - book shows no card position (AMD 20 @ 583.33 Roth is the pre-existing ai-semi lot, not the card). Held Week-2 AAPL 60 @ 333.50 Roth: OPEN, 341.07 close (+2.27%), week high 345.34 (T1 344.57 printed 9/22, not held), low 334.30 above the 335 ceiling on a close basis and the 328 invalidation; hard 319 GTC. Thesis right (semis IN, AMD the resolved chart), execution flawed: a limit 5.2% under the close in a nine-up-day name with a rising ratio, no buy-stop variant (rejected at 1.0:1 to T1 though 1.7:1 to T2) = a card designed not to fill. | B | |
| 2026-09-08 | CRWD | A — pullback in uptrend | 208.00 | Per the bars: CRWD week 213.10 -> 206.74 (-2.98%) vs SPY -0.81%; the 208 limit would have filled 9/9 (low 207.00); no close under the 200 invalidation (closes 210.02 / 207.80 / 208.86 / 206.74), the 196 hard stop never touched (week low 204.27), T1 229 / T2 233.90 / breakeven 218.07 never printed (week high 214.68). Actual: BUY 50 @ 207.69 Roth 9/8 (confirmed on the card), SOLD 50 Fri 9/11 on the chart read — exit price UNKNOWN, confirm (approx 205-206 = roughly -$85 to -$135). Book endpoint (as_of 9/8) does not show CRWD. | C |
| Date | Ticker | Gap | Entry | Exit | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | MRNA short | -4.80% | 197.67 | 205.23 stop | -1.17R |
| 2026-10-22 | UNP short | -2.90% | 295.37 | 297.63 stop | -1.37R |
| 2026-10-22 | NEM short | -3.40% | 113.43 | 112.57 tp2 | +1.13R |
| 2026-10-22 | SOFI short | -2.48% | 14.98 | 14.78 time 1555 | +1.72R |
| 2026-10-22 | SMH short | -3.81% | 536.76 | 534.06 tp2 | +0.62R |
| 2026-10-22 | SMCI short | -4.39% | 34.09 | 33.76 tp2 | +0.34R |
| 2026-10-22 | FCX short | -4.40% | 66.05 | 65.02 tp2 | +1.19R |
| 2026-10-22 | AA short | -4.07% | 38.94 | 38.71 tp2 | +0.54R |
| 2026-10-22 | MS short | -2.04% | 186.06 | 184.02 time 1555 | +3.70R |
| 2026-10-22 | HOOD short | -4.84% | 100.72 | 97.14 tp2 | +3.88R |